we shall analyse what the expectations are and how this may influence the FOMC decision on interest rates at the end of October.
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Gold & Silver Weekly Update w/e 27th September 2019
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Today is Sunday 29th September 2019 and we are alerting our subscribers to some very important data being announced this coming week which could give a very clear indication as to whether the FED will reduce rates further or leave them unchanged at its meeting on 29th & 30th October.
When the payroll report was announced earlier this month, it fell considerably short of expectations. In fact, there were a number of important takeaways from the August figures:
• Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 130,000 in August, in large
part to the temporary hiring of Census workers.
• The increase fell short of Wall Street estimates for 150,000,
while the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, as expected.
• July and June job figures were also revised lower.
• Excluding government hiring, private payrolls grew by just
96,000, the lowest pace since February.
On Friday, economists are expecting 145,000 new jobs to be created. If the figures are less than this, then there is every possibility that the FED will lower rates again at the end of October. If, however, they are much stronger and August was just a blip, the FED may be reticent to lower rates, especially as the FOMC is split on the issue and may wait until December.
Jerome Powell the FED Chair will be speaking at a “FED Listens” event in Washington on Friday, after the figures have been announced and so one can anticipate that journalists, analysts and economists will be listening very closely to what he has to say together with any comments he may make on the recent FED Repo purchases.
So, we wanted you to be aware of this coming up and to look out for this announcement and watch out for any comments coming from Jerome Powell on Friday. Our best guess at this stage is that the figures will prove close to estimates, but we have been surprised before and will not be surprised to be surprised again.
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